SPORTS ADVISORS
SUNDAY, MARCH 7
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Florida (20-10, 13-12 ATS) at (3) Kentucky (28-2, 16-12 ATS)
The Wildcats look to wrap up the SEC’s regular-season championship when they take on Florida at Rupp Arena.
Kentucky fell to Tennessee 74-65 on Feb. 27 as a 2½-point road favorite, ending an eight-game winning streak (6-2 ATS), all in the SEC. But it bounced back at Georgia on Wednesday with an 80-68 victory giving 7½ points. On the home floor this year, the Wildcats are a perfect 18-0 (just 8-8 ATS), rolling up 83.9 ppg on sturdy 49.6 percent shooting while holding foes to just 65.5 ppg on 38.3 percent shooting. They also outrebound visitors to Rupp Arena by nearly a dozen per game (39.6-27.9).
Florida may have already seen its Big Dance bubble burst over its last two starts, losing at Georgia 78-76 as a two-point chalk on Feb. 27, then falling to No. 13 Vanderbilt 64-60 Tuesday as a three-point home favorite. The Gators have shot a modest 42.9 percent over their last five games, including just 28.8 percent from three-point range. In fact, Billy Donovan’s troops have struggled greatly from long range all year, hitting just 30.8 percent, which rates 294th among 347 teams.
Kentucky has won three of the last four meetings in this rivalry (2-2 ATS), following a 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS run by Florida. Two months ago in Gainesville, the ‘Cats cruised 89-77 as a 3½-point chalk. Still, the Gators are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 contests, but the chalk is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the home team is on a 5-2 ATS surge.
The Wildcats are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 outings after a spread-cover, but they carry positive ATS streaks of 5-1 overall (all in SEC play), 4-0 on Sunday, 4-1 after a SU win and 4-1 against winning teams. The Gators have failed to cash in five of seven overall, but they’re 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Sunday starts and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 roadies.
Kentucky is on “over” stretches of 5-2 overall, 5-1 after a SU win, 4-1 after an ATS win and 5-2 in the SEC, and Florida is on “over” streaks of 5-1 on Sunday, 8-3 after a non-cover, 7-3 after a SU loss and 13-6 against winning teams. In addition, the over has cashed in four of the last six series meetings between these rivals, but the total has tayed low in five of the last six Lexington clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY
(15) Wisconsin (22-7, 16-11 ATS) at Illinois (18-12, 12-17 ATS)
The Badgers aim to firm up their postseason credentials with a trip to Champaign for a Big Ten clash against Illinois at Assembly Hall.
Wisconsin has followed a 1-2 SU and ATS hiccup by winning three in a row (2-1 ATS), including consecutive blowout victories. On Feb. 25, the Badgers ripped Indiana 78-46 as a hefty 12-point road chalk, then they suffocated Iowa 67-40 laying 18 points at home Wednesday. Coach Bo Ryan fields the nation’s third-best scoring defense, allowing just 56.1 ppg, while his team scores 67.8 ppg. On the road, however, the margin tightens, with Wisconsin averaging 61.6 and allowing 57.3.
Illinois went on a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS run that put the squad on the Tournament bubble, but the Illini have since dropped four of their last five (2-3 ATS) and will likely need to win the upcoming conference tourney or be relegated to the NIT. Illinois lost to No. 6 Ohio State 73-57 catching 9½ points on the road Tuesday, and has lost its last two at home – 62-60 to Minnesota giving three points last week and 72-53 to the Buckeyes as a two-point pup. In their last five games, the Illini have averaged just 57.2 ppg on a meager 37.7 percent shooting (27.6 percent from three-point range), while surrendering 65.2 ppg.
Illinois stunned Wisconsin 63-56 a month ago as a nine-point road underdog, halting a 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS run by the Badgers in this rivalry. Wisconsin is 4-1-1 ATS on its last six trips to Assembly Hall, and the favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings overall.
The Badgers have covered in just two of their last seven games against winning teams, while Illinois is on ATS skids of 1-5 at home, 4-9 against teams with a winning record and 0-4 at home against squads with a losing road mark.
In this rivalry, the total has stayed low in the last four clashes overall and six of the last eight in Champaign. In addition, Wisconsin is on “under” tears of 25-10 overall, 4-1 against winning teams, 36-16 on the highway, 14-3 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 15-5 on Sunday and 44-20 in the Big Ten. Likewise, Illinois sports “under” streaks of 5-1 overall (all in the Big Ten), 4-0 against winning teams and 15-6-1 on Sunday, though the over is 11-4 in the Illini’s last 15 home outings and 9-3 in their last dozen after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
MISSOURI VALLEY TOURNAMENT
(at St. Louis, Mo.)
Wichita State (25-8, 13-12-1 ATS) vs. Northern Iowa (27-4, 19-11 ATS)
The top two teams in the Missouri Valley will collide for the tournament title and an automatic Big Dance bid when the top-seeded Panthers battle Wichita State at the Scottrade Center.
Northern Iowa stifled Drake in the quarterfinals 55-40 laying 10½ points Friday, then put the handcuffs on Bradley in a 57-40 victory Saturday as an 8½-point favorite in the semifinals. The Panthers have held 11 of their last 12 conference opponents to less than 59 points, including nine to 55 or less, and they currently rank second in the nation in scoring defense at 54.4 ppg. Offensively, Northern Iowa averages 63.2 ppg.
Wichita State dropped Missouri State 73-63 as a three-point chalk in the quarterfinals, then held off Illinois State 65-61 Saturday as a two-point favorite to reach the conference title game. The Shockers have won and covered three straight after a modest two-game SU skid and six-game pointspread purge. Wichita State is averaging 70.0 ppg and giving up 61.2, and it is holding opponents to just 26.2 rebounds per game (fourth).
These two teams split their regular-season meetings this year, with the home team winning each time and Wichita State cashing in both games. On Jan. 19, the Shockers won 60-51 giving two points at home, and on Feb. 3, Northern Iowa prevailed 59-56 but fell short as a six-point home favorite. Wichita State is on a 5-2 ATS run in this rivalry (3-4 SU), cashing the last three in a row and four of the last five.
The Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight neutral-site starts, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season (including three double-digit victories). But they are also just 2-4 ATS in their last six games against winning teams. The Shockers, meanwhile, are on ATS tears of 8-1 on neutral courts and 7-3 as a neutral-site chalk, though they still carry negative pointspread streaks of 3-6 overall, 3-6 as a chalk and 3-5 in Missouri Valley play.
Northern Iowa is on “under” tears of 23-6 overall (4-0 last four), 20-4 at neutral sites, 10-3 in road/neutral-site contests this year, 18-4 in conference action, 10-2 as a chalk, 5-1 against winning teams, 21-6 after a SU win and 8-3 as a neutral-court favorite. Both of Northern Iowa’s MVC tourney games also fell far short of the posted prices of 118½ and 118, respectively.
Prior to the MVC tourney, Wichita State was on a 7-3 “under” run on the highway, and the Shockers’ two games thus far in St. Louis split, going over the posted price of 128 against Missouri State and falling just short of the 128½-point total against Illinois State. Finally, the total stayed low in both meetings this year, after a four-game “over” streak in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA
L.A. Lakers (46-17, 26-34-3 ATS) at Orlando (43-20, 33-29-1 ATS)
The Lakers, looking to salvage a three-game Eastern Conference road trip and avoid their first three-game losing streak in more than two years, head to Amway Arena to face the Magic in a rematch of last season’s NBA Finals.
Los Angeles is at the beginning of stretch in which it will play 11 of 14 games on the road, and it has already dropped the first two of those games. The Lakers fell at Miami 114-111 in overtime as a five-point favorite Thursday night, then came back Friday and got trounced at Charlotte 98-83 as a 3½-point chalk. L.A. is averaging about a bucket more than its opponents on the highway this year, scoring 100 points even and allowing 98.1 ppg. That translates into a modest 17-12 road record (11-17-1 ATS).
Phil Jackson’s team hasn’t dropped three straight contests since January 2008, a stretch of 228 games (playoffs included).
Orlando has won four in a row and six of its last seven (5-2 ATS), notching three wins on the road and three at home. On Friday, the Magic topped New Jersey 97-87 but fell just short as a 10½-point road chalk, ending a three-game ATS uptick. Orlando has the NBA’s No. 1 field-goal defense (43.7 percent) and is sixth in points allowed (95.5 ppg), and over the past five games, the Magic have shot 50.1 percent and averaged 105.8 ppg, while allowing 92.4 ppg on 43.8 percent shooting.
Los Angeles has won three in a row and five of the last six in this rivalry, with four of those wins coming in the NBA Finals, and they’ve gone 4-1-1 ATS in that span. In the lone meeting this season, the Lakers won 98-92, pushing as a six-point home favorite. The Lakers are 6-1 ATS on their last six trips to Amway, the underdog is on a 10-1-1 ATS tear between these squads, and the road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five clashes.
The Lakers are 6-1-2 ATS in their last nine Sunday starts, but the pointspread streaks spiral downward from there, including 1-7-1 overall, 0-4 on the highway, 1-4 after a SU loss, 0-5-1 after a non-cover, 2-5 as a pup, 1-5-1 against the East and 1-5-1 against Southeast Division foes. On the flip side, the Magic are on ATS rolls of 5-2 overall, 4-1 at home (all as a chalk), 18-7-1 against the Pacific Division, 20-8 on Sunday, 7-3 after a day off and a lengthy 61-30-2 after a non-cover.
The total has stayed low in six of the last seven meetings in this rivalry, including the last three in a row. In addition, Los Angeles is on “under” streaks of 9-3 overall, 8-1 as a pup (all on the road), 6-1 against winning teams, 7-2 on the road and 26-10 following a SU loss. Likewise, Orlando is on “under” stretches of 21-7 overall, 4-0 at home (all as a chalk), 6-0 against the Pacific Division, 6-1 against winning teams, 20-6 laying points, 45-18 after a day off and 35-16 against the West.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
Portland (37-27, 35-28-1 ATS) at Denver (41-21, 28-30-4 ATS)
The Trail Blazers pursue their fourth straight victory when they trek to the Mile High City to take on the Nuggets in a Northwest Division battle at the Pepsi Center.
Portland has won three in a row and five of its last six, going 4-1 SU and ATS on a five-game road trip – with the only loss coming in OT at Chicago – before returning home Wednesday night to rout Indiana 102-79 as a nine-point chalk. The Blazers have averaged 104.7 ppg in the past six games and allowed just 93, with all five wins coming by at least nine points (the last three by double digits).
Denver bounced back from losses at the Lakers and Phoenix (0-1-1 ATS) with a pair of home wins in its last two games, ripping Oklahoma City 119-90 giving seven points Wednesday and topping Indiana 122-114 as an 11-point chalk Friday. The Nuggets rate second in the league in scoring at 107.5 ppg, though they also allow 102.6 ppg (22nd). In the home jerseys, Denver’s output jumps to a whopping 112.2 ppg, while its opponents’ scoring remains the same at 102.6.
These rivals have split their last six games SU and ATS, with the home team going 5-1 ATS in that stretch, including Portland’s 107-96 victory as a one-point chalk on Christmas Day. The SU winner has cashed in the last seven meetings, the favorite is on a 5-1 ATS run, and Denver has gone 24-10-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five at the Pepsi Center.
The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five Northwest Division games, but they sport positive ATS streaks of 5-1 overall, 10-2 on the highway, 4-1 in the West and 6-2 as a road ‘dog. The Nuggets are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 after a non-cover and 37-14-2 ATS in their last 53 as a home chalk of five to 10½ points, but they are on pointspread slides of 1-3-1 overall, 9-19-1 as a favorite, 2-5-2 in the division and 1-7-2 after a SU win.
Portland is on “over” surges of 9-2 on the road, 6-2 as a road pup, 5-2 in division play and 14-6 in the Western Conference, and Denver is on “over” tears of 5-2 overall, 4-0 at home (all as a chalk) and 5-0 giving points. However, the Blazers are on “under” runs of 5-1 against winning teams, 5-1 as a ‘dog and 26-10-1 after a break of three or more days, and the under is 5-1 in the Nuggets’ last six against winning teams.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last six meetings overall, but the over has hit in 11 of the last 16 clashes in Denver.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
